2018 Oscars

2018 Oscar Predictions! Who Will Win? Who Was Snubbed?

Jimmy Kimmel Hosts the 2018 Oscars
The nominations for the 90th annual Academy Awards are out, and already office pools are being formed and the professionals are weighing in with their Oscar odds and picks.  Guillermo del Toro’s Cold War fantasy The Shape of Water led the way with a whopping 13 nominations, followed by Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk with 9 nods, and Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri, with 7.

In a relatively weak year, the Oscars recognized films going back as early as February 2017, and remembered the brilliance of Get Out with a Best Picture nod, Best Actor nom for Daniel Kaluuya, and Director and Screenplay nominations for Jordan Peele.  Legendary composer John Williams received his 51st Oscar nomination for the score to Star Wars: The Last Jedi, his own record that he continues to increase at the age of 85.  There were some notable omissions: Martin McDonagh for Best Director, nothing whatsoever for Wonder Woman, and Dunkirk inexplicably not making the cut for Visual Effects.  However, Oscar nominated a Wolverine movie for screenplay, so the world has gone a little upside down in an interesting sort of way.

Despite leading the way with nominations, I don’t think The Shape of Water is currently poised to dominate the awards.  The current momentum is with Three Billboards for the big honors.  I think Dunkirk’s victories will come in the technical categories, and Shape of Water’s big win will be for Guillermo del Toro as Director.  Of course, all of this speculation comes over six weeks before the actual ceremony.  The Winter Olympics have pushed the Oscars back to March, so we have a long way to go before we find out who will be going home with awards.  I’ve weighed in with my picks for most of the categories below: who will win, who should win, and who is missing from the nominees.

We’ll find out how accurate my picks are when Jimmy Kimmel hosts the ceremony Sunday, March 4, 2018, live on ABC. (Note: I don’t have any expertise in Foreign Film, Documentary or Short Film categories, so omitted them from my predictions.)

Frances McDormand in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri
Best Picture

Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
Phantom Thread
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

What Will Win: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
What Should Win: Dunkirk
What’s Missing: Blade Runner 2049, Wonder Woman, Wind River, Molly’s Game

Guillermo del Toro in The Shape of Water

Best Director
Dunkirk, Christopher Nolan
Get Out, Jordan Peele
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
Phantom Thread, Paul Thomas Anderson
The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro

Who Will Win: Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Who Should Win: Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Who’s Missing: Denis Villenueve (Blade Runner 2049), Patty Jenkins (Wonder Woman)

Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour

Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, Roman J. Israel, Esq.

Who Will Win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Who Should Win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Who’s Missing: Jeremy Renner (Wind River), Ryan Gosling (Blade Runner 2049)

 

Frances McDormand in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Best Actress
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

Who Will Win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
Who Should Win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
Who’s Missing: Jessica Chastain (Molly’s Game), Gal Gadot (Wonder Woman), Tatiana Maslany (Stronger)

Sam Rockwell in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missori

Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Who Will Win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards
Who Should Win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards
Who’s Missing: Kevin Costner (Molly’s Game), Patrick Stewart (Logan)

Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird

Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Who Will Win: Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Who Should Win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Who’s Missing: Ana de Armas (Blade Runner 2049), Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)

Dave Franco and James Franco in The Disaster Artist

Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me by Your Name, James Ivory
The Disaster Artist, Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
Logan, Scott Frank & James Mangold and Michael Green
Molly’s Game, Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound, Virgil Williams and Dee Rees

What Will Win: The Disaster Artist, Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
What Should Win: Molly’s Game, Aaron Sorkin
What’s Missing: Blade Runner 2049, Wonder Woman

Daniel Kaluuya in Get Out

Best Original Screenplay
The Big Sick, Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
Get Out, Jordan Peele
Lady Bird, Greta Gerwig
The Shape of Water, Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Martin McDonagh

What Will Win: Get Out, Jordan Peele
What Should Win: Get Out, Jordan Peele
What’s Missing: Wind River

Dunkirk

Best Cinematography
Blade Runner 2049, Roger Deakins
Darkest Hour, Bruno Delbonnel
Dunkirk, Hoyte van Hoytema
Mudbound, Rachel Morrison
The Shape of Water, Dan Laustsen

What Will Win: Dunkirk
What Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
What’s Missing: Wind River, Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Daniel Day-Lewis in Phantom Thread

Best Costume Design
Beauty and the Beast, Jacqueline Durran
Darkest Hour, Jacqueline Durran
Phantom Thread, Mark Bridges
The Shape of Water, Luis Sequeira
Victoria and Abdul, Consolata Boyle

What Will Win: Phantom Thread
What Should Win: Beauty and the Beast
What’s Missing: Star Wars: The Last Jedi, The Greatest Showman, Dunkirk

Dunkirk

Best Film Editing
Baby Driver, Jonathan Amos, Paul Machliss
Dunkirk, Lee Smith
I, Tonya, Tatiana S. Riegel
The Shape of Water, Sidney Wolinsky
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Jon Gregory

What Will Win: Dunkirk
What Should Win: Dunkirk
What’s Missing: Molly’s Game, Get Out

Gary Oldman in Darkest Hour

Best Makeup and Hair
Darkest Hour, Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick
Victoria and Abdul, Daniel Phillips and Lou Sheppard
Wonder, Arjen Tuiten

What Will Win: Darkest Hour
What Should Win: Darkest Hour
What’s Missing: Beauty and the Beast, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Sally Hawkins and Doug Jones in The Shape of Water

Best Original Score
Dunkirk, Hans Zimmer
Phantom Thread, Jonny Greenwood
The Shape of Water, Alexandre Desplat
Star Wars: The Last Jedi, John Williams
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Carter Burwell

What Will Win: The Shape of Water, Alexandre Desplat
What Should Win: Dunkirk, Hans Zimmer
What’s Missing: Logan, Thor: Ragnarok

The-Greatest-Showman

Best Original Song
“Mighty River” from Mudbound, Mary J. Blige
“Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name, Sufjan Stevens
“Remember Me” from Coco, Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez
“Stand Up for Something” from Marshall, Diane Warren, Common
“This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman, Benj Pasek, Justin Paul

What Will Win: “This is Me”, The Greatest Showman
What Should Win: “This is Me”, The Greatest Showman
What’s Missing: “Evermore”, Beauty and the Beast, “Rewrite the Stars”, The Greatest Showman

Sally Hawkins and Doug Jones in The Shape of Water

Best Production Design
Beauty and the Beast, Sarah Greenwood; Katie Spencer
Blade Runner 2049, Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola
Darkest Hour, Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer
Dunkirk, Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis
The Shape of Water, Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, Shane Vieau

What Will Win: The Shape of Water
What Should Win: Blade Runner 2049
What’s Missing: Murder on the Orient Express, Ghost in the Shell

Dunkirk

Best Sound Editing
Baby Driver, Julian Slater
Blade Runner 2049, Mark Mangini, Theo Green
Dunkirk, Alex Gibson, Richard King
The Shape of Water, Nathan Robitaille, Nelson Ferreira
Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Ren Klyce, Matthew Wood

What Will Win: Dunkirk
What Should Win: Dunkirk
What’s Missing: Wonder Woman, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Dunkirk

Best Sound Mixing
Baby Driver, Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater, Tim Cavagin
Blade Runner 2049, Mac Ruth, Ron Bartlett, Doug Hephill
Dunkirk, Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker, Gary A. Rizzo
The Shape of Water, Glen Gauthier, Christian Cooke, Brad Zoern
Star Wars: The Last Jedi, Stuart Wilson, Ren Klyce, David Parker, Michael Semanick

What Will Win: Dunkirk
What Should Win: Star Wars: The Last Jedi
What’s Missing: Wonder Woman, Thor: Ragnarok

Blade Runner 2049

Best Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049, John Nelson, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover, Gerd Nefzer
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Christopher Townsend, Guy Williams, Jonathan Fawkner, Dan Sudick
Kong: Skull Island, Stephen Rosenbaum, Jeff White, Scott Benza, Mike Meinardus
Star Wars: The Last Jedi,  Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Chris Corbould, Neal Scanlon
War for the Planet of the Apes, Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, Joel Whist

What Will Win: Blade Runner 2049
What Should Win: War for the Planet of the Apes
What’s Missing: Dunkirk

Coco

Best Animated Feature Film
The Boss Baby, Tom McGrath, Ramsey Ann Naito
The Breadwinner, Nora Twomey, Anthony Leo
Coco, Lee Unkrich, Darla K. Anderson
Ferdinand, Carlos Saldanha
Loving Vincent, Dorota Kobiela, Hugh Welchman, Sean Bobbitt, Ivan Mactaggart, Hugh Welchman

What Will Win: Coco
What Should Win: Coco
What’s Missing: Captain Underpants, The LEGO Batman Movie

Those are my picks, and-as I said-I think the Academy is going to spread the wealth around despite the huge number of nominations for The Shape of Water.  I have Dunkirk winning 4, Shape of Water and Three Billboards winning 3 each, and Blade Runner 2049 and Darkest Hour winning 2 apiece.  Tune in March 4th, and we’ll see what wackiness awaits us this year (let’s hope they at least announce the right Best Picture winner this time).

Who do you think is going home with the big prizes?

10 thoughts on “2018 Oscar Predictions! Who Will Win? Who Was Snubbed?”

    1. Ugh, noooooo! I’m trying to forget the movies on there I did see, and the site’s policy of sorts is to kind of try to celebrate the best in things not dwell on the worst. There’s enough of that out there. Plus, as a former member of the Razzie Academy (yes I am), I feel it would be back seat driving to my colleagues on the Golden Raspberry Panel lol.

      Liked by 1 person

  1. Seems like a wise breakdown to me. Dunkirk is so far beyond the other movies I’ve seen this year that I’m thinking I’m going to be through with this particular annual ceremony six weeks from now, like I’ve been saying… because, let’s face it, when there is no buzz surrounding a movie whatsoever, not even a faint humming, you can feel it in the air.

    No way Shape of Water wins big. I love the nominations, the movie is magical, it’s like Edward Scissorhands, channeled through a different sensibility thirty years later, and that is the highest praise I can give it. I don’t think Del Toro even gets best director. I cannot even picture the little guy up there at the podium accepting the award. It would be strange and wonderful to see a horror/fantasy director who started out doing makeup effects for low budget Mexican horror films winning this high profile Oscar, but the film is just too weird. It’s expertly made, balances diverse genres with elegance, has a wonderful and poignant message that also happens to be in tune with Academy Voter politics, but nope, nope, nope. A genre movie featuring sex with the Creature from the Black Lagoon gets. Shut. Out. I am standing by that, and I do not care how many nominations it received. And since I’m not feeling the Dunkirk train, at all, because there isn’t one, and this is obviously not Peele’s year (though of course Get Out is the very definition of a Best Screenplay win) I am going to make a weird prediction about a film I have not seen, and will probably never see, because I think it looks dreadful. But Paul Thomas Anderson. Why? I don’t like all of his films, but he is a consummate filmmaker, one of the true “legit” visionaries making films in the modern age, it’s a legendary actor’s last movie, and even though the film is not exactly a box office draw, it screams respectability and craftsmanship. I’m saying this without having seen it. But I think Anderson will be the guy. If not, Gerwig is my second choice, but sad if she wins, because she probably made the slightest movie in the category (like I said, I have not seen Phantom Thread, and do not plan to, but I’m telling you, Anderson is my favorite).

    Blade Runner had all sorts of things going for it. Villenvue is an artist beyond par, but he killed it by making it too long! And it was not just a commercial misjudgment, but an artistic one, an epic feat of self-indulgence, because the film does not contain three hours of plot or anything close. The drawn-out scenes do not even contain dramatic tension, because Villenvue never leaves you in doubt about what is coming next. The film was a home run, everything about it was in place, and he went and made it three hours long. This is truth. I know you loved the movie, but it did not deserve to be up there with the big guys, because its flaw is so big and tragic and fundamental. Villenvue did not take the blame for the failure. He needs to thank his lucky stars, because he deserved to take a lot of it. The film is way too protracted.

    I still have to see Three Billboards, but the darkness, the darkness, the darkness. It can wait a while more. Have you READ what Oldman said in Rolling Stone? I don’t mean to harp, but my God. He should win, and I hope he does, but I will believe it when I see it, and that’s with all of this momentum in the air.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. Whoever wins the DGA is going to win the Oscar, and I do think del Toro will win, though I haven’t seen Shape of Water because for whatever reason it’s never been released near me. I have seen Three Billboards and it is dark, but it’s worthy and McDormand is a lock and Rockwell is getting there. I do not think there is any way PTA wins best director. His nomination was a slap at Martin McDonagh who did get a DGA nomination and has the film in the driver’s seat right now. McDormand is a lock. Either Metcalf or Janney will win Supporting Actress. I’d love if John Williams won score because he’s running out of chances and he hasn’t won since Schindler’s List. Things may come around and Dunkirk may gain ascendance because it WAS the year’s best film (we’ve already debated BR2049 to death) and there is such a large time gap between now and when the awards happen. Again, I won’t watch because they make me insane, but like I said in the article, a Wolverine movie got a screenplay nomination. It’s a weird, weird year.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. The Logan nomination warmed my heat and made my day.

        Get Out deserved to be nominated for best score. I am surprised it did not. What does John Willams gain from another win? Even more respect, fame, influence, and ubiquity? The man provided the soundtrack to my childhood, before ceding the job to others, briefly, in my teenage years. Then he became the soundtrack to my life again. I would like other, younger talent to get a chance. I was really impressed by the score to Get Out, and I would have given it a nomination, and also the statue. BTW, I know I was down on the soundtrack to Greatest Showman, but they did put their best foot forward with This Is Me. I’ve been listening to that one all the time. It’s not “Another Day of Sun,” but when it wins, it will deserve it.

        My prediction about PTA is there to make me look like Nostradamus if I’m right. Weird things can happen at the Oscars.

        Liked by 1 person

      2. Weird crap at the Oscars? NOOOOOOO….do tell! Lol, yeah, who knows especially in a year where there’s this much parity and they seem reluctant to just honor the best film in Dunkirk. Williams should win because for whatever TLJ’s flaws, it was the best score of the year and he’s been passed over for superior scores so many times since the last time he won 22 YEARS AGO! I get he has 5, but he’s the greatest composer of the last century and he deserves another. The only other viable argument is Zimmer because Dunkirk depends so heavily on the tension his music creates even if that score isolated is not a ton of fun to listen to. I think Logan’s score should have been nominated. Beltrami created a really brilliant subtle piano driven score to the film that I think worked with all of Mangold’s other goals to make the anti-superhero supero film.

        Liked by 1 person

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s