Each Thursday we look at what is going to be coming out in theaters this weekend, show you the trailers for the big releases, predict the box office winner and just generally give you enough of a carrot to pull you through the rest of the work week. This week brings two more sacrificial lambs against Avengers: Infinity War’s third week in theaters.
Unlike Black Panther, Avengers: Infinity War only has a three-week grace period to earn most of its box office before it gets hit by a heavyweight challenger starting next week and continuing pretty much for the next two months. The film opens in China this week, so expect a big international haul. The only two contenders opening wide in the states are both getting pretty rancid reviews: Melissa McCarthy’s latest comedy Life of the Party and the Gabrielle Union revenge film Breaking In. Personally, I’d go see Thanos wreck the MCU one more time before Deadpool 2 arrives next week to begin the weekly summer onslaught.
Breaking In (Gabrielle Union, Billy Burke, R, 1hr 28min)
Life of the Party (Melissa McCarthy, Julie Bowen, PG-13, 1hr 45min)
How Did We Do Last Week? KT picked Avengers: Infinity War to easily repeat atop the box office, and the film had the second best second weekend of all-time. Infinity War made $114.8 million in the US and finished literally $100 million ahead of Overboard in #2 with $14.8 million.
After two weeks in theaters, Avengers: Infinity War’s totals stand at $472.06 million domestic and $1.243 billion global. While Infinity War will have a tough time passing Black Panther domestically, with the largest pre-sales in Chinese box office history, it may be the top grossing MCU film internationally by weekend’s end. The film is currently 13th all-time in the US, and should easily crack the top 10 by the end of the weekend. Internationally, the Avengers: Infinity War is 14th all-time, and should leapfrog up as high as #5 by next week. Black Panther is still playing in a lot of theaters, and needs less than $7 million to be the third film in history to crack $700 million in the US.
(2018 Prediction Record: 18-0; Lifetime prediction record 103 – 10).
WHO WILL WIN THE WEEKEND?
Avengers: Infinity War has no trouble three-peating. Deadpool 2 should knock it out of the top spot next week, but nothing is going to come close this weekend.
It will be hard for BP to make that additional 7 mil, because at this point it’s all repeat business. It’s one of those movies that everyone saw. I have not lived through something like that since Titanic.
DP will be huuuuuuge, don’t get me wrong, but it is being marketed as a superhero QT movie, and as popular as QT movies are, they do not actually compete with family friendly ones. Solo will siphon business from DP, not the other way around. I do not care that DP is a cbm. People only just met the guy, and he is not family friendly.
The first Solo reactions, for what they are worth (not much) are positive so far, but not unrealistically effusive. If the film captures the OT feel, and offers freshness and nostalgia in tandem, with capable new faces, and loads of real-looking special effects, it will do just fine, people will love it, it will give the brand a helpful boost at just the right moment in time. Even if Disney’s investment in Lucasfilm starts looking dicey, because how on earth does this thing make a profit, Solo will generate warm feelings, and get people onboard with the concept of a SW film on a regular basis.
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Black Panther hits Blu Ray on Tuesday and most theaters still have it. Unreal. Solo apparently does poise itself to be a franchise, you called that but I don’t hear anyone really excited about it. I have my tickets. Certainly hoping for the best.
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I try to be an optimist when there’s an opening. But if you remember, I was wary about the pre release Last Jedi hype. I’m not trying to position myself as a prophet. For all I know, I’m a broken clock, and I blew my one happy coincidence on that film. But the bad buzz surrounding the Solo production, sometimes justified, sometimes not, has given way to a general consensus that it’s a really good flick. People are not placing it on the list of the worst ever made, and they are not experiencing Nirvana. THIS IS WHAT REAL LIFE IS SUPPPOSED TO BE LIKE. The evidence for a good Solo is quite credible.
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You know… something struck me tonight. Lord and Miller were apparently fired because their take was not traditional enough, right? Kennedy stepped in, with the film 90% finished, and told them to take a hike, right? And the big question has always been, how was it allowed to get that far? Well, consider that TLJ was an extremely radical rethinking of the franchise. It now occurs to me that it’s highly probable that Kennedy was completely on board with Lord and Miller’s new direction, that she was even siding with them against Lawrence Kasdan. And somewhere along the line, (very far, far along the line) she realized that Lucasfilm needed to hedge its bets, just in case TLJ did not work out the way she thought it would. Or, conversely, TLJ was considered such a gamble that she was ordered by someone very high up to make Lucasfilm hedge its bets.
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It’s possible. Lord & Miller were apparently going for a Guardians of the Galaxy tone and refused to alter course. They viewed Howard’s cut of the film to decide if they wanted a director’s credit and declined (that had to have been an awkward screening). Disney views TLJ as a financial failure, both at the box office and in merchandising. Remember after TFA? Everyone was dressed up as Kylo Ren or Rey for Halloween nearly a year after the film had been released. As soon as Black Panther hit, TLJ just dropped out of the popular consciousness. People were relieved to be rid of grappling with it. I’m honestly not sure how well Solo will do, even if it’s good-not-great. It’s tough to see it achieving what Disney seems to expect though, and if that means Kennedy is out, that might be for the best (as long as they don’t poach Kevin Feige from Marvel to replace her).
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I don’t believe they’re being THAT unrealistic about Solo, not for real. They’re spinning. If they didn’t act like it was going to perform like a SW movie, they would be admitting the problems caused by the last one.
They think they have a decent film on their hands that people will be charmed by, and they’re putting it out there.
Serious question. Do you know for a fact that Disney considers TLJ an out and out failure at the box office? Not that I have difficulty believing. Disney paid 4 billion for Lucasfilm, and so far the movies have made what in ticket sales, 4.3 billion? They have not gotten much profit back from their investment.
I guess that would not be a problem if the films had kept generating forward momentum. Disney poured much energy and enthusiasm into revamping the saga with TLJ. I’m pretty sure they were expecting it to break the usual middle-chapter slump, and propel the saga into further billions.
And yet, Solo broke presale ticket records. I really don’t think it’s Solo, or Kennedy’s head on a pike. No one at Disney can be dense enough to think that Solo will undo the problems TLJ caused Disney. As long as Solo is appealing, and people like it a lot, SW is kept in the air as a legitimate form of entertainment. Until, that is, force ghost Yoda is compelled to fight force ghost Obi-Wan while the fate of the galaxy hangs in the balance, and Anakin referees.
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Disney considers TLJ to be a failure, not just because of the box office but because of the huge drop in merchandising between it and TFA. Remember, that’s how Lucas made his fortune on Star Wars, not on tickets but with toys. That’s why SW has already made Disney way WAY more than what they paid for Lucasfilm, and TLJ, while it made a lot of money at the box office, didn’t move merchandise. I don’t know how precarious Kennedy’s position is, but I know she’s managed to alienate a good portion of the fan base with some of her comments and decisions (myself included).
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